Monday, November 22, 2010

Fertile Crescent Components do the Wilkins Wakeley Model

I've decided to test how well the distributions for the Fertile Crescent components (West Asian, South European and Southwest Asian components [Dodecad K10 data]) adhere to the Wilkins Wakeley Model.

Essentially, can the geographic distribution of these three components be described with the Normal Distribution?

I've added some outlier populations.  These include the Georgians, Lezgins and Adygei at the northern extent, and the Saudis and Ethiopians at the southern extent.  Here's the stacked bar plot again, with these populations added on each end:

On the x axis: 1=Lezgins, 2=Adygei, 3=Georgians, 4=Armenians, 5=Turks, 6=Assyrians, 7=Cypriots, 8=Syrians, 9=Jordanians, 10=Egyptians, 12=Saudis and 14=Ethiopians.

In order to approximate some degree of geographic proportion, I've inserted two spaces around Saudi Arabia, since it is a large country in comparison to the others.  I now plot a separate graphs for each component and attempt to fit the data with the Normal Distribution:





On the x axis, 0 to 14 are as defined above.  The bottom graph plots the fitted distributions from the preceeding graphs.

What emerges is that a geographic point of coalescence can be discerned for the three components.  For the West Asian component, the point of coalescence appears to be in the Caucasus.  For this data set, which does not graph Sardinia, the Southern European coalescence point is in Cyprus.   The coalescence point for the Southwest Asian component is at a point adjacent to the Southern Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden.

It is also evident that the West Asian component is an older, more diffused component.

The distributions for the Southern European and Southwest Asian components can described with the same variance.  Both components are less diffused and younger than the West Asian component.

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